ADNAN
India and Pakistan have been engaged in a contentious relationship since their independence in 1947. This relationship has been characterized by conflict and rivalry, leading to four wars, frequent border skirmishes, and the exchange of hostile rhetoric by top leadership. Despite being smaller and economically weaker, Pakistan perceives India as its primary security threat. Conversely, India also views Pakistan as a security concern. However, India’s security and foreign policy are also influenced by its aspirations for regional and global power status.
The competition between the two nations extends to the development of ballistic missiles. India has been actively developing missiles capable of targeting not only Pakistani territory but also intercontinental ballistic missiles with the potential to reach parts of China and beyond. Pakistan’s missile program is solely focused on deterring aggression from India, while India’s ballistic missile program is driven by both regional security concerns and aspirations for global influence. Additionally, India perceives China as a threat, shaping its security policy to counter potential challenges from Beijing. This dynamic exacerbates tensions between India and Pakistan.
Both New Delhi and Islamabad possess well-established ballistic missile programs, closely tied to their nuclear capabilities. India’s development of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) further complicates the competition, influencing Pakistan’s decisions regarding the type and quantity of missiles and warheads required to counter a potential Indian Missile Defence System.
Indian Missile Programme
India has emerged as a frontrunner in missile development, with Pakistan closely following suit. Although India’s space and missile program originated in the 1970s, it wasn’t until 1988 and 1989 that India conducted its first tests of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. In the 1980s, India launched an ambitious missile program aimed at developing five missile systems under the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP). These systems included Trishul, Nag, Akash, Prithvi, and Agni. The Prithvi-1, with a range of 150 km, underwent its first test in 1988, followed by the Prithvi-2, with a range of 250 km, tested in 1996. By 1997, India had conducted approximately 16 tests of the Prithvi missile and had manufactured around 40 of these missiles, subsequently deploying them in the Indian Army. Leveraging technology from its existing civilian space program and adopting reverse engineering methods from Russian missiles, India developed the Prithvi, Agni, and other missile series.
In subsequent years, India bolstered its technical capabilities, enabling the pursuit of an ambitious Ballistic Missile Programme. Starting from the year 2000, India expanded its missile program and developed 11 missiles, including short-range Prithvi and Prahaar, as well as the medium- and intermediate-range Agni 1 to Agni 5 series. Additionally, India developed two Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), the K-15 and K-4, along with cruise missiles such as Brahmos and Nirbhay. The development of these missile series was based on the Agni Technology Demonstrator (AGNI-TD), tested in 1989, which paved the way for the development of Agni 1 and Agni 2 medium- to intermediate-range missiles. These missiles were inducted into the Indian Army around 2002, with Agni-2 entering actual operational service around 2005. Currently, Agni-1 to Agni-4 missiles are already in service, ranging from short to medium and intermediate ranges. The ranges of Agni-1 and Agni-2 are sufficient to cover the entire Pakistani territory, while Agni-3 and Agni-4 can target Chinese territory. Agni-3 underwent initial tests in 2006 and 2007 and was inducted in 2011, while Agni-4 was inducted in 2014. The development of the intercontinental ballistic missile, Agni-5, with an 8000 km range, is currently underway.
Opting to operationalize the third component of its nuclear triad, India developed its K-series sea-launched missiles. The 700 km short-range K-15 (Sagarika) underwent a series of tests in the mid-2000s, followed by further trials from a submerged platform between 2008 and 2013. The 3000 km intermediate-range nuclear-capable Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), K-4, was initially tested from an underwater pontoon in March 2014. Partially based on technology developed under the Agni series and derived from Agni-3, these missiles are intended for deployment on India’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN), INS Arihant, which was commissioned into the Indian Navy in August 2016. The submarine boasts four vertical launch tubes capable of housing either four K-4 missiles or 12 K-15 missiles. Additionally, two other potential missiles may be deployed on the Arihant: the subsonic cruise missile Nirbhay, with a range of 1000 km, successfully tested in October 2014, and the naval variant of the supersonic cruise missile BrahMos. Nirbhay complements the BrahMos by providing a longer-range capability at subsonic velocities.
India is also working on many missiles and technologies that will become operational in the coming years. It is pursuing multiple re-entry vehicles (MRV) and multiple independently-targeted re-entry vehicles (MIRV) technology for its ballistic missiles. It is also working on longer-range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles ─ the Agni-6 and Suryra projects. It is also pursuing the K-5 which is a SLBM with a 6,000 km range. The BrahMos Aerospace is building a new hypersonic missile, the Brahmos II.
Pakistan’s Missile Programme
Just as Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons capability was a direct response to India’s nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile program was similarly initiated in reaction to India’s advancements in missile technology. The catalyst for Pakistan’s modest rocket program was a combination of factors, including the US denial of promised F-16s, several military confrontations with India in the mid-1980s, and India’s successful testing of the Prithvi and Agni missiles. Over the years, Pakistan’s missile program has evolved from its nascent stages to become increasingly sophisticated, encompassing short- to medium-range missiles developed through a combination of indigenous efforts and foreign assistance. Serving as the cornerstone of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence strategy, the missile program holds immense significance for the country.
Since the 1960s, both India and Pakistan have maintained civilian space programs. However, it wasn’t until India launched the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) in 1983 that the missile rivalry began. In response to India’s advancements, Pakistan leveraged technology from sounding rockets to develop two short-range missiles in the late 1980s: the 80 km Hatf-1 and the 200-300 km range Hatf-2. Pakistan conducted tests of the Hatf missiles in February 1989, although they were not initially nuclear-capable. Initially lacking the technological infrastructure for ballistic missile development, Pakistan sought foreign assistance. However, procurement was hindered by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), established in 1987 to regulate the trade of missile-related technologies and components.
India initiated its missile program prior to the formation of the MTCR, giving it a head start in acquiring missile technology and components. Rodney Jones aptly summarized Pakistan’s predicament, noting that India had set the pace in acquiring missile delivery capabilities on the Subcontinent, leaving Pakistan trailing behind and facing greater procurement challenges and planning uncertainties. Despite these obstacles, Pakistan managed to acquire Chinese M-11 missiles in the early 1990s and reverse-engineered them to produce the 300 km Hatf-3 or Ghaznavi. Subsequently, Pakistan successfully established its indigenous technological base and developed the 200 km range Abdali, designated as Hatf-2, which replaced the original Hatf-2. Abdali underwent its first test in 2002. In April 1998, Pakistan conducted a test of its liquid-fueled Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) Hatf-5 or Ghauri, with a range of 1300 km.
Following the Ghauri test, Pakistan conducted a more sophisticated version of the missile, along with the testing of the Shaheen-1 missile with a range of 700 km on April 15, 1999. This test was strategically timed in response to India’s Agni-2 test, which had a range of 2000 km, just four days earlier. Subsequent testing led to the induction of Ghauri and Shaheen-1 into the Army’s Strategic Forces Command (ASAF). The Ghaznavi/Hatf-3 missile, with a range of 290 km, was first tested in May 2002 amid heightened tensions with India and was inducted into the ASAF in February 2004. Pakistan’s longest-range missile, the Shaheen-2/Hatf-6, with a range of 2000-2500 km, was first tested in March 2004.
In January 2017, Pakistan conducted the first test of its surface-to-surface ballistic missile (SSM) Ababeel, boasting a range of 2200 km and the capability to deliver multiple warheads using MIRV technology. This advanced feature allows the missile to engage multiple targets with precision and evade enemy radars. According to an Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) press release, the development of Ababeel aimed to ensure the survivability of Islamabad’s missiles in response to the Indian Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) threat. Many of Pakistan’s subsequent missile developments have focused on countering or bypassing India’s BMD system, reflecting Islamabad’s significant concern over this defensive capability.
Pakistan’s Security Challenges
Pakistan faces the challenge of balancing its security needs without engaging in a costly arms race with India. It must shift away from an India-centric security outlook and focus on safeguarding its sovereignty against potential threats. Rather than matching India weapon for weapon, Pakistan should maintain a minimum nuclear deterrent and second strike capability to deter aggression. However, technological advancements pose challenges to nuclear deterrence, necessitating a focus on conflict resolution and reducing tensions in the region. Both countries should work towards a Strategic Restraint Regime (SRR) and implement crisis management mechanisms to prevent inadvertent escalations. Confidence-building measures (CBMs) such as advance notification of missile tests and avoiding incidents at sea can contribute to stability and peace in South Asia.
CONCLUSION
The genesis and subsequent development of missile and nuclear programs in India and Pakistan are characterized by an action-reaction dynamic. India’s initiatives in missile development prompted Pakistan to enhance its own security measures. This pattern continued with India’s development of Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), prompting Pakistan to diversify its missile systems and develop technologies like cruise missiles and Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs). Similarly, India’s establishment of a sea-launched nuclear capability led Pakistan to develop the Babur-3 missile. The introduction of India’s Cold Start doctrine elicited Pakistan’s development of Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) like Nasr to bridge the gap between conventional and nuclear deterrence. While arms races are generally destabilizing, certain systems like Nasr, Babur-3, and those designed to counter Indian BMD contribute to stability for Pakistan. Both India and Pakistan must strive to avoid falling into an arms race trap, balancing security needs with the risks associated with such escalation.
Author is student of IR at NDU Islamabad
