Abubakar Arif
Human history is full of bloodshed, and fighting between nations and people. For their existence, humans have striven to develop more powerful weapon systems. The final stage of the two magnificent years of World War 2 was the start of the new age, the nuclear age when the US dropped an atomic bomb on Japan. This opened up a completely new debate in the field of International Relations. During the atomic era and the Cold War period, the USA and the USSR had a very revolutionary impact on the theory and practice of nuclear weapons. In 1956, the Soviets fielded a Zulu-Class submarine capable of carrying and launching one Scud ballistic missile. It was, in the scenario of the US striking with hands down the land-based weapons of the USSR, to give a blowback with an atomic bomb in return. This gave rise to the Deterrence via Sides of the Street or the Second Strike Capability. It is such an idea namely, to have nuclear weapons that can stand up to the first strike of the enemy so that retaliatory attacks could confront them. Such a plan would prevent an adversary from attacking us without expecting a counter-attack from our side. A submarine is perceived as being able to provide credible deterrence capability that guarantees survivability. Pakistan and India have been at each other’s neck since their independence. People from both nations have waged countless wars. The advent of nuclear weapons in South Asia in the year 1998, through which India and Pakistan became overt atomic weapons states, marks the starting point of this saga of South Asia as a nuclear weapons state. Following this, both nations are rushing with their atomic arsenal program, and to be second in this race India has come up with the launch of INS-Arihant which is a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. It is not Pakistan’s desire to be dominated by India and for that it has also made efforts to fulfil second strike abilities. Hence, Pakistan is the country that has designed a submarine-based cruise missile, named Babur-III, which has a range of 450 km, thus the Babur-III can become the instrument of second strike.
Pakistan and India are our long-term enemies since they gained their independence from the British. The reason is influencing both countries to follow the pattern of the arms race. Pakistan reacts to India’s action with the build-up, such as the apprehending of nuclear capabilities and the second strike capability. Massive atomic programs of India are regarded as the reason for the destabilization of the region. Pakistan’s strategy always focuses right on coinciding with India to maintain stability in South Asia, which is the strategic territory. In 2010 India started its work and in 2018 the Indian Army launched its first powerful balanced missile submarine, INS Arihant. With this, the Indian Army also established its second strike capability besides three submarines running for construction. Pakistan also updated its conventional submarines by running them under an air-independent propulsion mechanism that is loaded with the modified cruise missile Babur-III. This also is one of the two-day response forces to ensure no successful attack by India.
Eventually, the question arises whether Pakistan’s second strike capability is dependable or not. Especially for the SSBN(Submersible ship ballistic nuclear or ballistic missile submarine) that is vital to the second strike capability, for its ability to remain under the water for longer time without being detected is critical. Such feature is possessed by the Arihant submarine. conversely, Pakistan’s has conventional submarines which cannot stay longer. Pakistan has modified one of its submarines, which is a substitute for constructing a new one. Because of these problems, one submarine cannot be in the sea continually, and the security can be spoiled.
Pakistan equipped its submarine with short-range cruise missile equipped with the range of 450 km only which targeted the coastal cities of India. A mutual process of moving all Indian land based arsenals away from the range of Pakistani nuclear missiles would be the only viable solution if Pakistan plan to retain its second strike capability, otherwise it would not be able to demolish India’s land based nuclear arsenals. Thus, Pakistan’s second strike has its own limitations. For building a second strike capability a medium range submarine launched ballistic missile is very essential.
Moreover, the most important component of the NC3 system is the maintenance of the safety and confidence. Developing a communication network that acts as a framework for delivering the order is of topmost importance. Increase in communication between National Command Authority and the launch authorization order for Babur-III missile will be required to be have a meaningful Nuclear Command and Control, and Communication system. In fact, lack of proper communication makes it hard for Pakistan to get success in handling nuclear operations. And thus, as that system of command and control is in its early stage in Pakistan. This role of compulsory Pakistan may give it up as a deterrence measure.
However, Pakistan’s current second strike capability is still not yet credible. The role negotiations, even when unsuccessful, would not cease to deter the enemy completely. Having a hard time to achieve Pakistan’s second strike capability, there are a lot of obstacles. Pakistan has the potential to invest in nuclear power by increasing ballistic missile submarines for being able to give a guaranteed and operationally acceptable second strike by remaining submerged. It will surely enhance the second strike capability of the country. Secondly, Pakistan should adopt the construction of missiles submarine to be launched from long range submarines for complete deterrence of India and to perform its full spectrum deterrence policy.
The Author is a student of National Defence University Islamabad E9
