WASHINGTON: The upcoming U.S. winter is expected to be mildly snowy and extremely cold, with federal meteorologists predicting warmer-than-normal conditions in the north and wetter and stormier conditions in the south. ing.
A strong El Nino is weakening, significantly changing the path of storms the U.S. is expected to experience from December to February, coupled with accelerated warming from climate change and record-hot oceans, the U.S. says. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials said in a winter announcement. Outlook report.
The expected warmth will likely produce a few snow-to-rain storms in the northern part of the country, while one or two major nor’easter storms are possible on the East Coast, There is some hope for snow lovers. said John Gottschalk, director of operations for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. As a result, parts of the East Coast, especially the Mid-Atlantic, could see more snow than usual, he said.
Much of the country is expected to be warmer than normal, extending into much of Tennessee, Missouri, Nebraska, northern Nevada, and California. In other parts of the country, temperatures are expected to be near normal or warm, cold, or below normal. NOAA does not expect any region of the United States to be colder than usual this winter.
“The best chances for warmer-than-normal weather are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England,” Gottschalk said.
More precipitation is expected in the southern part of a similarly sized country. More moisture is expected to spread south down the East Coast from Massachusetts and west along much of the South below Tennessee, extending into Texas, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Nevada and much of California. It passes through parts of the country, but excludes most of New Mexico and Arizona.
The Great Lakes region from Lake Erie to eastern Washington and the northernmost tip of the country are expected to be drier than normal.
All of this is due to El Niño, a natural cyclical warming of parts of the Pacific that is changing weather patterns around the world and raising global temperatures overall, Gottschalk and others say. his NOAA scientist said. Particularly in the United States, the effects of El Niño are strongest in the winter. It then sends a jet stream that moves the storm front along an unusual path dominated by warm, moist Pacific air rushing south.
That means more rain in the south and more storms later in the winter, Gottschalk said. El Niño often refers to “unusual severe weather across Florida caused by a strong subtropical jet stream,” he said.
These changes in the jet stream often create storms along the East Coast, where moisture from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico becomes “very soft” and can cause heavy snowfall in major cities in the East, Gottschalk said. Ta. This will depend on temperature and other conditions, so it won’t happen over and over again. But if the timing is right, “these storms could really explode off the East Coast,” he says.
He pointed to his 2010 Washington’s devastating Snowmageddon storm, which caused more than two feet of damage in the metropolitan area during an El Niño event.
Typically during El Niño events, the South is not only wetter but also cooler, but Gottschalk said rising ocean temperatures and a record-breaking summer have caused forecasters to abandon cooler forecasts. Ta.
NOAA scientists say climate change is an additional factor in their projections, especially since winter is the season when the world experiences the strongest warming above previous normals due to the burning of coal, oil and natural gas. Ta. According to NOAA data, winters at 48 degrees north latitude have warmed by an average of 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) over the past 40 years. 55,555 non-NOAA meteorologists expect winter to be much the same.
Judah Cohen, a winter storm expert at Atmospheric Environment Research, a Boston-based business, is known for his successful predictions based on studies of fall Siberian snowpack and the infamous polar vortex. Snowpack in Siberia, El Niño and other factors “point to an overall mild winter,” he told The Associated Press.
When there is less snow in Siberia, the polar vortex, a mass of cold air concentrated at the top of the Earth, becomes stronger and tends to trap cold Arctic air near the poles, Cohen said. More snow weakens the polar vortex, allowing cold air to escape into the United States.
People on the East Coast should prepare for “weather whiplash,” where we don’t usually get much snow except for one or two real severe weather events, especially in the Mid-Atlantic, Cohen said.
Private company AccuWeather predicts below-normal snowfall in Boston, New York City, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Chicago, and Minneapolis, near-normal snowfall in Kansas City, Salt Lake City, and Philadelphia, and above-normal snowfall in Denver. . AccuWeather is forecasting cooler-than-normal temperatures for parts of Southern California, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee, with less warmth than NOAA.