Rome: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has built a reputation as a leader and unifier of Europe’s fractured far right, but political turmoil on the continent has shaken her position.
Close ally Viktor Orbán of Hungary stole some of her supporters in the European Parliament, and the far-right National Rally(RN) suffered a humiliating election in France.
But Italy’s most right-wing leader since the end of World War II may still be playing cards, analysts say.
Since coming to power in October 2022, she has toned down her Euroscepticism and aligned herself with most EU leaders by steadfastly supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
And she worked with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to help calm nerves in Brussels.
But recent events, particularly the creation of a new bloc in the European Parliament founded by Orbán, are causing serious problems for Meloni, political observers say.
Add to that the surprise defeat of RN Marine Le Pen in French parliamentary elections on Sunday and a victory for centre-left Labor in Britain and it has “definitely not been a good week” for Meloni, La Stampa wrote.
Meloni was fresh off the top in June when her European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) bloc in the European Parliament won new members to become the body’s third largest faction.
She displaced a bloc associated with France’s Emmanuel Macron – with whom she has a frosty relationship.
But success turned sour on Monday, when Orbán’s Patriots for Europe group overtook the ECR to rally parties — not just France’s RN, but also poaching Spain’s Vox from Meloni’s camp.
“It’s bad news in terms of numbers, but more importantly, it’s bad news because they stole the spotlight,” Daniele Albertazzi, professor of politics at the University of Surrey, told AFP.
“They’ve clearly shaken up the agenda in the last week or two, they’ve managed to bring in very big parties.
Political scientist Anna Bonalume said Vox’s defection “shows the extent to which Giorgia Meloni has been weakened by this European series of events”.
In addition, Orbán made a surprise visit to Moscow last week, which was widely criticized by Ukraine’s Western allies.
This could contribute to the deterioration of relations with Meloni, who in the past scored points in Brussels for extracting concessions from the Hungarian leader.
“If there is a definitive break with Orban after Orban’s visit to Moscow, Meloni would be completely isolated in Europe,” Bonalume told AFP.
Another potential competitor emerged on Thursday with the creation of a new far-right Europe of Sovereign Nations group, led by Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, fresh from its best-ever result in European elections.
The French election would not please Meloni.
Italian media said it had counted on Macron’s defeat to help it negotiate an influential role for Italy in the next European Commission after being sidelined last month as leaders picked senior positions.
“But the bet didn’t work,” wrote La Repubblica newspaper.
On Tuesday, Meloni sought to put a positive spin on recent events, saying that unstable governments have long been a fixture in Italy, unlike the stable ones enjoyed by its neighbors.
“Today we see Italy with a very strong government in a Europe where there are very unstable governments, and that must make us proud,” she said on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Washington.
Despite the claimed strength of the Italian government, far-right League leader Matteo Salvini continues to provoke his coalition partner Meloni, without directly attacking her, as he joined Orbán’s grouping, calling it “decisive for changing the future of this Europe”.
But Meloni – as leader of the EU’s third-largest economy – is able to turn recent setbacks to her advantage, Albertazzi said.
“It depends on how he plays the game,” he said.
“It’s not bad news because it also helps Meloni reinforce her own narrative of ‘I’m a responsible and moderate radical right’.”
And if Meloni manages to secure the role of High Commissioner for Italy, he can show that he still has influence in Brussels.
“She’ll be able to say, ‘Those people over there are making noise, but I’m the one making a difference’.”
