United Nations: A key UN report has placed Pakistan, with a current population of more than 245 million, among countries whose population is expected to grow by 2054, potentially peaking in the second half of the century or later.
According to current projections in the UN World Population Prospects 2024 report, Pakistan will reach its highest population in 2092 at 404.68 million people.
In 2048, Pakistan’s population is expected to surpass Indonesia’s at 331.29 million.
Between 1998 and 2017, the average population growth rate in Pakistan was 2.40%, the report said. In a population of over 220 million, this is an increase of about 5.28 million people per year.
It was highlighted that Pakistan has one of the highest birth rates – 22 births per 1000 people. “Very few women use any type of contraception in Pakistan, and a growing population can put too much pressure on water and sanitation systems, leaving millions unemployed and overwhelming health and education systems.”
Since the country became a sovereign state in 1947, Pakistan’s population has grown significantly, mainly as more people have felt comfortable moving their families and businesses to the area, the report said.
Compared to other countries in the region, Pakistan’s growth rate is about 2.1 percent higher, she said.
The report predicted that in about 35 years, if this growth continues, Pakistan’s population will eventually double from what it was in 2001. Judging by how the population has grown significantly in just ten years, this figure of “population doubling ” yes It doesn’t seem far, he said.
Pakistan’s current growth rate is close to 2%, but is expected to halve to less than 1% by 2050 – at which point it is projected to cross the 300 million mark.
The report also states that the global population will reach nearly 8.2 billion by mid-2024 and is expected to grow by another two billion over the next 60 years, peaking at around 10.3 billion in the mid-1980s.
After that, it will drop to about 10.2 billion, which is 700 million less than expected a decade ago. That’s just one of the key findings revealed in a report released Thursday by the United Nations.
But global population changes are uneven and the demographic landscape is evolving, with rapid population growth in some places and rapid aging in others, making reliable population data “more important than ever”, the UN agency for sexual and reproductive health (UNFPA) said, announcing the report, which is published on the occasion of World Population Day.
The report “must be used to reach out and respond to the needs of those left behind,” the agency added.
To mark the international day, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said it was crucial to count everyone accurately “because everyone counts”.
“Our rich human tapestry is only as strong as its weakest thread. When data and other systems work for those on the edge, they work for everyone. This is how we accelerate progress for everyone.”
To study this population data in more detail, the 28th edition of the World Population Prospects (WPP), published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) since 1951, provides the latest demographic data for 237 countries from 1950 to 2024 and projections up to 2100.
WPP is central to tracking the Sustainable Development Goals, with about a quarter of the indicators relying on its data.
The world’s total fertility rate is falling, with women having one fewer child on average than around 1990.
In more than half of all countries and territories, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 – the level needed to maintain a constant population size.
Meanwhile, nearly a fifth of all countries and regions, including China, Italy, South Korea and Spain, now have “ultra-low fertility”, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
As of 2024, population size has peaked in 63 countries and regions, including China, Germany, Japan, and the Russian Federation, and the group’s total population is projected to decline by 14 percent over the next thirty years.
The average age of the world population is also increasing.
By the end of the 1970s, the number of people over the age of 65 is expected to exceed the number of people under the age of 18.
This is partly due to an overall increase in life expectancy and a decrease in death rates over the past three decades. By the late 1950s, more than half of all global deaths would occur at age 80 or older, a substantial increase from 17 percent in 1995.
While slow population growth or decline occurs mainly in high-income countries, rapid population growth occurs in low- and middle-income countries.
Specifically, Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger and Somalia are expected to see very rapid growth, with their total populations doubling between 2024 and 2054.
This population growth will increase demand for resources, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, and, combined with poorly managed urbanization and rising living standards, will exacerbate environmental impacts.
Climate change, a major challenge, is hitting these countries the hardest, where many rely on agriculture – and where food insecurity is prevalent.
Countries including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States are also expected to see population growth through 2054, potentially peaking in the second half of the century or later.
For population and development, “the recognition that women’s sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights are the cornerstones of sustainable development,” said Secretary-General Guterres.
Especially in low-income countries, early pregnancy remains a problem.
In 2024, 4.7 million children were born to mothers under the age of 18, or about 3.5 percent of the total number of children worldwide.
Of these, about 340,000 were born to children under the age of 15, with serious consequences for the health and well-being of young mothers and their children.
Investing in the education of young people, especially girls – and raising the age of marriage and first childbearing in countries where it occurs early – will have positive outcomes for women’s health, educational attainment and labor market participation, according to WPP data.
These efforts will also contribute to reducing the scale of investment needed to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind, the report added.
