Caracas: Venezuela’s military, a pillar of 25 years of socialist rule, is set to play a key role after Sunday’s presidential election in which incumbent Nicolas Maduro is seeking a third six-year term.
It is unclear which side he will return to.
Maduro’s government, described as increasingly authoritarian, and the opposition, confident of victory, are both relying on the armed forces to ensure the outcome.
Maduro, accused of cracking down on opponents ahead of Sunday’s vote, often claims he has the military as an ally in his bid to stay in power.
In a message on social media, Gonzalez Urrutia called on the armed forces to respect and enforce the election result and vow that his government would be one of reconciliation.
Opinion polls show that Gonzalez Urrutia – a little-known ex-diplomat who unexpectedly rose to the top of the opposition ticket – won the election by a wide margin.
But there is widespread concern that Maduro will never allow it.
The army, said Renata Segura, an analyst at the Crisis Group think tank, will be the “decisive actor” in the event of a stolen opposition win: “either it will pressure the government to accept the result or go out and suppress the protests”.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Venezuela’s military had 343,000 members in 2020.
But with a shift to the left under Chávez’s presidency from 1999 to 2013, the friendship shifted to Russia, which today supplies Venezuela’s armed forces with Sukhoi jets and Kalashnikov assault rifles.
Just weeks before Sunday’s vote, two Russian warships visited the South American country to fight crippling US sanctions imposed after Maduro’s 2018 re-election bid was rejected by dozens of Western and Latin American countries over alleged fraud.
President Chávez, a military man himself, led a constitutional reform that in 1999 gave soldiers the right to vote and the military a key role in state institutions, including the vital oil industry.
For Venezuela expert Rebecca Hanson of the University of Florida’s Center for Latin American Studies, a military coup in the event of an opposition victory “was not out of the question,” although unlikely.
“Senior military officers have become incredibly powerful during the Maduro administration… This means they have a lot to lose if Maduro steps down,” she told AFP.
Junior officers do not benefit from Maduro’s presidency in the same way as their superiors. They have also been significantly affected by the (economic) crisis” some seven million people have fled in recent years.
The military largely controls mining companies, oil production and food distribution in Venezuela, as well as the customs service and 12 of 34 ministries.
“The armed forces are getting privileges, promotions and creating new positions,” former general Antonio Rivero, an exiled Chavismo critic, told AFP.
Nearly 50 high-ranking military officials, both active and retired, are on the US sanctions list over allegations that include drug trafficking and rights abuses.
Activists say the military has been used in a campaign to ruthlessly suppress protests against Maduro’s harsh rule and economic misery.
They also condemn the capture of more than 200 “political prisoners,” including dozens of dissident soldiers held on vague charges of conspiracy or treason.
Maduro insists he is only defending himself against US-led attacks and plots to oust him.
In Chavismo’s 25 years, the opposition has won only two national votes: in the 2007 referendum on constitutional reform, which was rejected, and in the 2015 parliamentary elections.
After that vote, the result of which came as a shock to the regime, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino issued a message to the nation calling the process “flawless” – a move that observers credited with maintaining calm.
“It’s an important precedent,” Segura said.
