Muhammad Ramzan
Pakistan is the 34th largest country in terms of land area, and the 41st largest economy in terms of GDP, however, the 5th largest country in terms of population. At the time of independence in 1947, Pakistan’s population was around 32 million, which has increased to over 240 million people by 2023 and is equivalent to 2.99 percent of the total world population. This rapid increase in the population is now emerging as a serious challenge for Pakistan as it would overburden the meager resources of the country and create multiple problems that can pose many threats.
The UN Population Division has estimated Pakistan’s population to touch 263 million by 2030 if the current trend of population growth is not arrested. The impact of this rising population on Pakistan’s economy will be multifaceted as it will increase unemployment, give rise to poverty, and enhance demand for resources, infrastructure requirements, and social services.
A large youth bulge has the potential to provide a demographic dividend to a country by contributing to its economic growth. However, turning this youth bulge into a dividend requires many initiatives including appropriate policies to ensure education, skill development, and job creation. But Pakistan is lacking in these initiatives, due to which the rising population is turning out to be a big problem for the country.
A growing population will place increased demands on essential resources such as water, energy, and food. This heightened demand is already straining the existing infrastructure leading to resource scarcity issues.
With more mouths to feed, the pressure is rising on the agricultural sector to produce more food. Being an agricultural country, Pakistan’s agriculture sector’s annual imports are around US$ 10-12 billion and the rising population would make this issue more serious. The need for sustainable agricultural practices is becoming so important to meet the rising demand without depleting resources.
A rising population often leads to increased urbanization. Pakistan has the highest rate of urbanization in South Asia. According to the UN Population Division, almost half of Pakistan’s population will be living in the cities by 2025. It will necessitate substantial investments in infrastructure development, including housing, transportation, and sanitation, to accommodate the expanding urban population. Unplanned and unmanaged urbanization is already creating the issues of urban slums, environmental degradation, poverty, and inequality. Without proper financial resources, it will become more difficult for the country to invest in infrastructure development leading to more serious social issues.
The rising population will necessitate the provision of extensive healthcare and education services. Pakistan is already spending a low amount of its GDP on health and education. Providing quality healthcare and education services is becoming a serious challenge, particularly if the growth is not accompanied by adequate investments in these sectors.
A rising population can create income inequalities if economic growth does not benefit all segments of the population. Pakistan is already facing this problem as the average income for the richest is more than 16 times the average income for the poorest in the country. The growing population is likely to create more social tensions and potential challenges to the economic stability of Pakistan.
Pakistan is faced with serious challenges of environmental pollution, land degradation, water, and air pollution. A growing population will further increase environmental stress through increased pollution, deforestation, and habitat destruction. Pakistan needs to slow down population growth and adopt sustainable development practices to mitigate adverse environmental effects.
One advantage of a larger population is that it creates a big consumer market and can attract domestic and foreign investment. However, to realize this potential, Pakistan needs to formulate effective economic policies and strategies to harness the demographic dividend, which is currently not happening in our country.
A larger population necessitates the allocation of more resources for social welfare programs to address the needs of people. However, due to a lack of resources, Pakistan’s spending on social protection is only 0.5% of its GDP, which is much lower than the average spending of other South Asian countries.
In conclusion, with the current rate of population growth rate, Pakistan will have to experience dramatic declines in per capita availability of arable land, water, and forest resources. This situation will further deepen the economic and political crisis in the country and fuel insecurity challenges over scarce resources. Hence, it is high time that policymakers should devise integrated policies and strategies to cope with the population explosion to ensure sustainable progress and prosperity. Pakistan should move fast without wasting further time to control the rising population. It should implement comprehensive policies that focus on education, healthcare, job creation, and sustainable resource management to harness the potential benefits of demographic growth while mitigating potential risks. Without investing in education, family planning, and women empowerment, it would be difficult for Pakistan to accommodate a huge population expected to become the world’s fourth largest by 2050.
The writer is working for a trade organization in Pakistan
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